手牌KK面对河牌圈的下注，跟还是扔？
手牌KK面对河牌圈的下注，跟还是扔？
1
牌局背景无限德州扑克常规局，盲注级别25/50。桌上玩家筹码量如下图：
翻前，你在UTG+1位置用K♠K♣率先加注到150。劫位玩家跟注，其他人弃牌。底池现在有375。翻牌是J♣J♦Q♠，你下注200，对手跟注。转牌是2♥，你往775的底池下注400，对手仍然跟注。河牌是Q♣，你过牌，对手下注约3/4底池大小，你会如何行动？2职业牌手的解答为了在河牌圈跟注1150赢得一个3875的底池，我们必须认为自己的牌至少有38%（1150/3875）的胜率。因为对手不太可能用比我们糟糕的牌做价值下注，我们必须相信对手的范围由至少30%的诈唬牌组成才能证明跟注是合理的。对手可能用T9s（s代表suited，指同样花色；T代表10）、KTs和99、88这样小对子诈唬。然而，大多数小于JJ的对子会对转牌圈下注弃牌，而且我们阻断了两种KTs组合。因此T9s成了对手仅有的常见诈唬牌。KTs和T9s总共只有6种组合。对手也在可能用任何Qx、Jx做价值下注，这些牌在其范围中约有50种组合。所有这些组合都能够打败我们，而且对手往往用这种方式游戏。
总之，对手底牌范围中的诈唬牌远低于30%。因此对手范围中的诈唬牌比例太少，使得跟注是无利可图的。综上所述，弃牌是最好的玩法。
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