AKo翻前遭遇4bet全压,应该怎么办?
AKo翻前遭遇4bet全压,应该怎么办?牌局背景及过程
这手牌来自一个盲注5/10美元的无限德州扑克现金局。桌上玩家筹码量如图。翻前, UTG+1玩家加注到3BB,后面玩家弃牌,你在劫位用A♣ K♦ 再加注(3bet)到9BB,而大盲玩家再加注(4bet)到全压(117.5BB)。UTG+1玩家弃牌,轮到你行动。你会如何行动?跟注还是弃牌?
职业牌手的解析
每次你考虑是否跟注一个翻前全压时,你应该确定你的底池赔率和跟注需要的最小胜率。然后,你应该估计对手的底牌范围。
在本例中,我们需要跟注1000美元去赢得1215美元,相应的底池赔率为1.215 : 1。如果我们跟注,底池总额将为2215美元,因此我们跟注需要的最小胜率应该是1000/2215,约为45%。
大盲玩家做超额下注全压后,我们可以认为对手的范围偏重于强牌。大多数牌手应该不会用AQ或中等口袋对子这么玩。事实上,大多数牌手采取这种行动时会有一个由QQ+和AK组成的范围。
对抗这个范围,我们的非同花AK有约 39%的胜率(我们可以通过底牌胜率计算软件确定)。即使我们把JJ或TT这样的牌加入对手的范围,也只能把我们的胜率提高到刚刚超过40%。
为使我们达到跟注这个全压的最小胜率,对手必须用AQ或更差牌做4bet。如果没有任何历史信息表明该对手会用这些牌采取这种行动,对抗一个很可能特别强的范围,我们弃牌就好。
尽管我们为了价值用A♣ K♦对初始加注者3bet,但我们应该对大盲玩家的超额下注全压弃牌。
综上所述,弃牌是最好的玩法。
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